Economics Archive

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Hazlitt, Henry. “Economics In One Lesson”

Henry Hazlitt wrote this book following his stint at the New York Times as an editorialist. His hope was to reduce the whole teaching of economics to a few principles...

Henry Hazlitt wrote this book following his stint at the New York Times as an editorialist. His hope was to reduce the whole teaching of economics to a few principles and explain them in ways that people would never forget. It worked. He relied on some stories by Bastiat and his own impeccable capacity for logical thinking and crystal-clear prose.

He was writing under the influence of Mises himself, of course, but he brought his own special gifts to the project. As just one example, this is the book that made the idea of the “broken window fallacy” so famous.

What thrills us in particular about this new edition is that it is beautiful, it is hardcover, and it is newly typeset for modern readers. It has a full index. It includes a wonderful foreword by Walter Block. It’s the right size, shape, and feel – perfect for making this book central to all educational efforts of the future.

This is the book to send to reporters, politicians, pastors, political activists, teachers, or anyone else who needs to know.

Professor Block explains that it was this book that turned him on to economics as a science. He believes that it is probably the most important economics book ever written in the sense that it offers the greatest hope to educating everyone about the meaning of the science.

Written for the non-academic, it has served as the major antidote to fallacies in the popular press, and has appeared in dozens of languages and printings. It’s still the quickest way to learn how to think like an economist. And this is why it has been used in the best classrooms more than sixty years.

Many writers have since attempted to beat this book as an introduction, but have never succeeded. Hazlitt’s book remains the best. Even if you own this book already, or have several past editions, you will want to have this book as your own as a wonderful testament to its place in the world of ideas.

*Review sniped from mises.org.
** PDF full text here.

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Mises, Ludwig von. “Human Action”

There are two ways to read Mises’s great treatise. Most readers will, I fear, find the book too much to attempt to grasp systematically. Not everyone feels like reading a...

There are two ways to read Mises’s great treatise. Most readers will, I fear, find the book too much to attempt to grasp systematically. Not everyone feels like reading a nine-hundred-page book straight through. If you shrink from a full confrontation with the book, you will, as I hope to show, miss out on a great deal. But all is not lost. You can open the book almost anywhere and come away with new insights.

As an example, Mises demolishes the central core of Marxist economics in a few brilliant pages. Marx famously claimed to have discovered the “laws of motion” of capitalism. How does the capitalist transform his initial monetary investment into a larger sum of money at the close of production? For Marx, the answer did not lie in trickery.

Quite the contrary, Marx claimed to show that the capitalist could extract profit even if all commodities exchanged at their value. The capitalist buys labor and raw materials at their value and sells the product manufactured with their aid at its value. Why does it turn out that the second sum is greater than the first? Why, in other words, are not the prices of the factors of production bid up to absorb anticipated profits?

The answer, Marx thought, lies in the exploitation of labor. By the labor theory of value, which Marx professed, all goods exchange at the value of the labor required to produce them. Labor, then, obtains as wages what is required to produce the laborer. In brief, labor earns a subsistence wage.

Once the capitalist has purchased labor, his fortune is made. He now gets whatever value the labor he has purchased adds to his raw materials. (Remember, in Marx’s theory labor is the source of economic value.) In the usual case, this value exceeds the subsistence costs of labor. The result of this surplus, which Marx terms the rate of exploitation, is profit, and our pretended Newton on economics has here unveiled his new scientific law.

I have gone on at some length about labor exploitation, as this notion is vital to Marxism. Destroy it, and the whole of Marxist economics collapses. And this is just what Mises proceeds to do. He at once locates the central fallacy in Marx’s argument.

Even if one accepts the labor theory of value, Marx’s explanation of wages fails. Except under special conditions, the price of labor is not determined by the costs of subsistence. “The `iron law of wages’ and the essentially identical Marxian doctrine of the determination of `the value of labor power’ by `the working time necessary for its production’…are the least tenable of all that has ever been taught in the field of catallactics …. [I]f one sees in the wage earner merely a chattel and believes that he plays no other role in society, if one assume that he aims at no other satisfaction than feeding and proliferation …one may consider the iron law as a theory of the determination of wage rates” (p. 602).

The conditions required for Marx’s view to hold practically never obtain, as Marx himself had to admit. Workers’ wages under capitalism rise far above subsistence. Rather than acknowledge that his theory failed, Marx changed its terms. He now contended that what constitutes subsistence is a question of history: for workers in a given society, “subsistence” may mean relative luxury. As Mises mordantly notes, this is to abandon completely the attempt at a theory of wages. “What he [Marx] has in mind is no longer the `indispensable necessaries,’ but the things considered indispensable from a tradition point of view…. The recourse to such an explanation means virtually the renunciation of any economic or catallactic elucidation of the determination of wage rates” (p. 603).

Let us turn from Marx to the fall of the Roman Empire. (As we shall later see, the topics are linked.) Why did the Roman Empire, long able to contain barbarian assaults, eventually fall victim to them? Mises finds the answer in an unexpected place: economics. By the second century A.D., the Roman Empire had developed into a complex economy. “The various parts of the empire were no longer economically self-sufficient. They were mutually interdependent” (p. 761).

Unfortunately, governmental interference crippled the economy, thus opening the way for invaders. Price control and currency debasement were the chief culprits: “The Roman Empire crumbled to dust because it lacked the spirit of liberalism and free enterprise. The policy of interventionism …decomposed the mighty empire as it will by necessity always disintegrate and destroy any social entity” (p. 763). Mises’s account extends the analysis of Michael Rostovtzeff, whom he cites.

I have so far imagined a reader who dips into the book sporadically and tried to show how he can expect to find insight after insight. But such a reader will miss much. Human Action is unified by a central theme, which Mises always bears in mind.

Mises saw human beings as faced with a fundamental choice. Nature provides man with no automatic sustenance; and, if confined to living in small groups, human beings will find life hardly worth living. But the situation is not entirely bleak.

To escape from Darwinian struggle, man must take advantage of social cooperation through the division of labor. Here, in Mises’s view, lies the veritable key to civilization. But how can human societies best take advantage of the division of labor?

In the answer to this question lies Mises’s central point. Only if a method of calculation exists can human beings in a complex society take full advantage of the division of labor. Alternatives must be compared with one another, if people are to know how best to fulfill their desires for goods and services; and this can be done only if the alternatives can be reduced to a common denominator for assessment. This, in turn, can be accomplished only through market prices.

Now it is apparent that the two insights discussed above, far from being random remarks, fit exactly into Mises’s central strategy. The Marxist system proposes the destruction of capitalism-hence it must be rooted out and destroyed. Even more directly, Mises’s comments on the Roman history illustrate his principal thesis-interfere with economic calculation, and you are sunk.

Once you have grasped Mises’s leitmotif, everything falls into place, and the book takes on a relentless quality as Mises hammers home his case. Another illustration of the way in which Mises elaborates his theme of capitalism and calculation must here suffice.

Controversy over the effects of the Industrial Revolution on the standard of living of the working class has been a staple of modern historiography. Such eminences as E.P. Thompson and Eric Hobsbawm paint the plight of the working class in somber hues. (I do not think it altogether a coincidence that both of these writers once found a welcome haven in the British Communist Party.)

Mises refuted these supposed authorities in advance, with a simple but devastating point. Population in eighteenth-century Britain increased greatly. Unless the new industrial system was indeed more able than its predecessor to supply the wants of the workers, no such increase in numbers could have taken place. “But let us not forget that in 1770…England had 8.5 million inhabitants, while in 1831…the figure was 16 million. This conspicuous increase was mainly conditioned by the Industrial Revolution” (p. 617).

The Scholar’s Edition of Human Action reprints the first edition of Mises’s great work. As Jeffrey Herbener, Hans Hoppe, and Joseph Salerno make clear in their excellent introduction, this edition is superior to the later redactions-second thoughts are not always best. Its treatment of monopoly price includes important passages later dropped, and only this edition contains Mises’s brilliant account of the Nazi barter agreements (pp. 796-99). The Scholar’s Edition is even better than the original 1949 printing since it includes the aforementioned introduction comparing the various editions. Further, the book has been beautifully printed, as befits a work of this stature.

*Review taken from mises.org

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Wall Street Elites Still Think War Is Good

I’m still amazed that so many smart people really think that destruction yields net gains in a nation’s productive capacity. Every bomb we explode, every missile we launch, every depleted...

I’m still amazed that so many smart people really think that destruction yields net gains in a nation’s productive capacity. Every bomb we explode, every missile we launch, every depleted uranium round we fire into a bunker, and every brown person we kill with live fire is the destruction of American capital.

After the assassination of bin Laden last night, Rasmussen was quick to pull up some old data about Wall Street investors attitude about war.

In 2003, Capture of Saddam Hussein Boosted Consumer, Investor Confidence – Rasmussen Reports™.

Hey douchebags, read Hayek.

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Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Second Round

John Papola hit the economic establishment with a quick jab a year ago with his video “Fear the Boom and Bust.” But he just knocked them out with a 1-2...

John Papola hit the economic establishment with a quick jab a year ago with his video “Fear the Boom and Bust.” But he just knocked them out with a 1-2 combination. His second installment “Fight of the Century” is an epic economic rap battle. Enjoy.

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The Textbooks Are Wrong

I was recently asked the following set of questions: “If the value of the dollar drops, does that increase the demand for US exports? Is it possible that the dollar is intentionally being devalued by the US government in order to create jobs?”

Here is my non-answer:

Any University macro class will teach that a devalued currency bids well for domestic exports as well as domestic consumption of domestically produced goods. As the world supply of US currency increases, it becomes cheaper for countries to purchase that currency, and in turn purchase goods from firms that sell goods denominated in the dollar (pretty much every firm in the US). Also, when the US dollar loses purchasing power, more dollars are required to purchase foreign currencies used to purchase imports. For example, each USD purchases fewer and fewer Chinese Yuan. Imagine a firm that imports a component from China that costs 100K Yuan. Today, it will cost $15,410 to buy 100K Yuan. But, as the dollar devalues, the price of a Yuan increases. What if the USD devalues so much that it trades 1:1 against the Yuan? Suddenly that component costs $100,000 and the US firm looks within its own borders and finds a similar component for $17,000. So it purchases domestically. Likewise, that firm competes globally with an Italian firm, who uses similar components which it used to buy from China, after trading Lira for Yuan. However, since the USD is so cheap now, the Italian firm can trade Lira for dollars and buy the component from an American firm for cheaper than from China! Controlled inflation is a boom the US economy! A boom for jobs! And that makes sense why the Fed (not the US government) is always inflating the currency. The Federal Reserve has two congressional mandates: keep prices stable and maintain full employment.

Now, the great free market economist F.A. Hayek once said, “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” So now I begin:

The problem with all of those manipulations is that they, along with all of modern economics, are based on one simple impossibility: the expectation of ceteris paribus. It is the principle that makes all those charts and graphs and mathematical models work in this field that has become blindly obsessed with calculus. Ceteris paribus is Latin for “all other things the same”. In real life, an economist, a politician, or even the head of the Federal Reserve, cannot freeze all other actors in an economy. Ceteris paribus, the founding principle of Keynesians economics, is an impossibility. An economy is simply too complex. To paraphrase the late Murray Rothbard, the one redeeming quality of Marx is that he wasn’t a Keynesian.

One of the things that cannot be controlled is the boom/bust cycle that is always generated by expansionary monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve creates new money, not every dollar is devalued immediately. In fact, at the instance new money is created there is no change in the value of money held by others. It isn’t until the new money is spent and circulated through the economies that it becomes less valuable. This creates a perverse incentive to be the first firms to receive new money, to get it while it’s still valuable. The industries that get this new money first explode in a new investment bubble. When those bubble burst, and an economy tanks, the Fed has no choice but to turn up the presses to “stimulate” the economy again. And the cycle grows bigger, faster, more volatile, more violent.

Take for example 1997. Fears of the Y2K Bug were starting to gain real traction in policy circles. The Fed, afraid that there would be a huge demand for paper cash if computer networks crashed on New Year’s morning, began to turn on the presses, and ramp up reserves at its member banks. Well, nothing became of that bug. However, the banks, sitting on dough, began to release that cash on margin for investors. All that easy credit fueled the greatest boom in US tech history. The Nasdaq bubble, and it subsequent bust was 100% fueled by the Federal Reserve. When the economy tanked, sucking billions of dollars of wealth out of middle class America’s retirement (and it is always the middle class that gets destroyed by loose monetary policy), the Fed turned on the presses again, dumping even greater sums of money into its member banks. What ensued was the greatest real estate bubble in history. All that cheap credit turned everyday Americans, who 10 years earlier were dumping every dollar they could get their hands on into dot com stocks, into house flippers, landlords, developers, and property speculators. Until that bubble crashed, causing the greatest financial meltdown in modern history. And we all know someone who is bankrupt because of it. So, what did the Fed do? They didn’t bail out the middle class; they bailed out their politically connected investment bank cronies, and then turned on the presses. While Congress was wrangling over an $800 billion dollar bailout package, the Federal Reserve was dumping nearly three TRILLION dollars into the global economies. The Fed has almost doubled the money supply in the last three years.

Where will this new money come to roost? There is a small bubble emerging in mergers and acquisitions right now. You will begin to see some very high profile mergers. The AT&T/T-Mobile merger is a good example. Investment banks are using a lot of that cash to shuffle liabilities between firms. That isn’t a bubble that touches everyday America, but it will. Remember, not all cash devalues at the same rate. My point is, though on paper expansionary monetary policy looks like a good way to stimulate exports, it always results in economic chaos at home. It is modern day mercantilism.

There are far too many wild cards out there right now for the textbook scenario to play out the way the central planners hope, any one of which will cause real pain at home. China has a hell of a lot of our cash. If they dump it, OPEC will follow. Gas will sky rocket at home. Manufacturing will collapse. Inflation will destroy personal savings overnight. Defaults will affect real estate, automotive, education, and industrial sectors. Food prices will skyrocket since our ability to import will be crippled. When people go hungry, blood flows…

But by all means, we should be focusing on a birth certificate.

——- Additional Resources ——-

VIDEO: Fear the Boom and Bust – Hayek vs. Keynes Part I
VIDEO: Fight of the Century – Hayek vs. Keynes Part II

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Stop Blaming Speculators for Fuel Prices

I’m tired of people blaming speculators for the rising cost of fuel. Futures traders play two very important roles that keep our economy strong.

First, they work for firms that consume that commodity and help them hedge against future price shocks. For example, the airline industry buys and sells futures on jet fuel every day. The result is stable, relatively predictable airfare. Families going on vacation, small businesses sending their sales representatives abroad, investment bankers preparing to fund new startups, and government officials returning to their districts from Washington can all do so because the futures traders, the hack press demoralizes them by calling them speculators, keep the price predictable.

Second, speculators not only drive current costs up quickly when future prices are expected to rise, but they have the opposite effect when future prices are expected to fall. If the government would release a plethora of new drilling permits as well as new refinery permits today, though it may be 2-3 years before those new supply lines come online, futures traders would start driving the price of oil down immediately. Firms sitting on oil and fuel reserves, using the price signals generated by futures traders, would realize that their hopes in making greater gains by selling their inventory at a later date have been dashed. They would dump their supply immediately, and immediately gas prices would drop… rapidly.

The real cause of increased fuel prices is the Fed. Look at this chart. I plotted the average retail price of gasoline in the US against the M2 money supply for the last two decades. Then I generated a trend line for the gasoline to smooth out the volatility. The result? Almost a perfect match.

As you can see, the trendline for gas prices is nearly a perfect match against the M2 money supply. The Federal reserve is 100% to blame for our rising pain at the pump.

A futures trader is not a gambling fiend like the pundits on MSNBC would have you believe. They are 100% rational, and they trade in the future cost of commodities based on the information available in the marketplace. They serve a wonderful role and give entrepreneurs price signals for the future cost of commodities. Put the blame where it belongs.

——- Additional Resources ——-

Peter Schiff predicting $10 – $20 gasoline: [LINK]
Me predicting $7 gasoline by year’s end: [LINK]
John Stossel on Innocence of Speculators: [LINK]

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Paul, Ron. “The Revolution: A Manifesto”

“The Revolution: A Manifesto” written by Dr. Paul on the run up to his campaign for President in 2007-8, is a great primer to libertarian thought and a sound introduction...

“The Revolution: A Manifesto” written by Dr. Paul on the run up to his campaign for President in 2007-8, is a great primer to libertarian thought and a sound introduction to the political, social, and economic challenges the freedom movement faces. My path to embracing libertarian principles has been, like most other converts, perhaps the most painful thing I have ever faced under my own volition. There are very few public figures that exemplify absolute the loyalty of principle demanded by liberty. I can only think of two: Judge Andrew Napolitano and Dr. Ron Paul.

Chapter One, “The False Choices of American Politics,” uncovers the fallacy of the left/right divide in American Politics. He shows that there is practically no substantive difference between the major parties. Their disagreements lay in application of power, not in the acquisition of it.

Chapter Two and Three provide us with a brief romp through early American history, with a focus on the constitutional approach the Founding Revolutionaries took toward foreign policy. Perhaps the ballsiest part of the book occurs when Dr. Paul throws down the gauntlet demanding that the neoconservative and liberal pols either openly condemn the founding fathers or else follow them.

Chapter Four, “Economic Freedom,” is a little meatier in substance. Dr. Paul dives into the world of capitalism, declaring that America does not practice laissez-faire capitalism, but actually finds herself approaching a sort of corporatist Fascism. He appeals to Liberals in exposing the over reach of corporations that have become de facto, if not de jure, extensions of government. He then reminds “paleoconservatives” that true free trade does not require our nation to abdicate its sovereignty as it did in NAFTA and the WHO agreements.

Chapter Five, “Civil Liberties and Personal Freedom,” finds Dr. Paul ramping up the rhetoric against the Neo-conservative doctrines which seek to forever disolve the limits the constitution places on government.

Chapter Six, “Money: The Forbidden Issue in American Politics,” is my favorite chapter. In a clear and simple manner, Dr. Paul unrolls the practices of America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, and exposes its primary goal, the systematic devaluation of our currency. That devaluation comes in the form of inflation, which is explained not as increased prices (that is simply the effect of inflation), but as an increase in the money supply. The effects of inflation, as Dr. Paul explains, are not uniform. The Fed distributes dollars to politically connected institutions where those dollars are enjoyed before the price effects of inflation are fully felt. By the time those dollars trickle down to the middle class, the value is diluted. The Fed redistributes wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich.

The final chapter, “The Revolution,” is a systematic approach, proposed in the form of a Presidential platform, that is intended for a one to two term President. He alludes to the fact that it would be impossible to fully restore the nation to its minarchal roots in eight years. However, his plan, as outlined in the book, is designed not to preempt the inevitable collapse of the American Empire, but to guide the nation in for a soft landing.

Obviously Dr. Paul didn’t win the election in 2008, and the current administration seems to be uber-neocon in ideology. I still hold out hope that Dr. Paul will run again in 2012. I have contacted his offices to offer my support. Though the nation may not be ready quite yet for an Austro-libertarian president, his campaign in 2007 advanced the liberty movement more than any single event in the last 100 years. I can only imagine what it would be like now.

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A Letter to Dr. Ron Paul

Dear Dr. Paul (or the staffer that reads this): Murray N. Rothbard once said that human life “is an attempt by each man to be as happy as possible.” I’ve...

Dear Dr. Paul (or the staffer that reads this):

Murray N. Rothbard once said that human life “is an attempt by each man to be as happy as possible.” I’ve been down some of the darkest rabbit holes to find that happiness, and in the end I discovered that only in the reverencing of my own personal freedoms and in the fighting for more individual sovereignty can I hope to find joy.

Dr. Paul, more than any man I have ever listened to, is consistently on message regarding personal freedom. Should he run for President in 2012, I will be here supporting him, and given Romney/Huntsman whispers in the Utah rumor mill, I understand the implications that lie therein.

By way of introduction, I’m not a Utah native, but having graduated from BYU’s Marriott School of Management in 2007 (after transferring from Cornell University) I have come to call this state home.

Like most austro-libertarians, my own individualist awakening came from reading a book, in my case, Atlas Shrugged. Since that day I have read practically everything written by Rothbard, Hoppe, Rockwell, Mises, and Woods. I have read Mises’ Human Action a half dozen times and have listened to every lecture from the past three Mises Universities.

Though today I find my idealism tempered by a wide eyed comprehension of the political realities that lie before us, my ambition to restore sovereignty to the individual has never been more aflame. That’s why I would like to develop a relationship with your organization.

Should Romney or Huntsman run, the west is not a lost cause for Dr. Paul. The majority of the Mormon population remembers that our people, long before becoming hyper-nationalist, were in a state of civil disobedience against a federal government which did nothing to defend our civil rights that were trampled by murderous state governments.

It would be my honor to stand against any Republican pundit here in Utah in defense of Dr. Paul. You may not be able to find another supporter in this state that can articulate the austro-libertarian framework as well as I can, in either English or Spanish.

Also, if Dr. Paul has need of any help outside of Utah, I will be more than happy to render my services nationwide and/or tap into my old Ivy League network.

Please feel free to contact me via email at branden.espinoza@gmail.com.

Cheers,
Branden

________

Dr. Paul’s Reply (No doubt boilerplate, but kind of cool none the less):

Dear Mr. Espinoza:

Thank you for taking the time to contact my office with your kind and supportive words. It is reassuring and encouraging to hear from people, such as yourself, who understand the issues and the positive impact of a pro-freedom philosophy.

Such active citizen participation, as the founders well understood, is absolutely vital to our form of government and to the preservation of the liberty they entrusted to us.

As I serve in the 112th Congress, please be assured that I shall continue to take very seriously my oath to uphold the Constitution, support limiting federal powers, and work to make ours the freest and hence most prosperous and tranquil society in the history of mankind.

Thank you again for taking the time to communicate your thoughts.

Sincerely,

Ron Paul

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Predictions for 2011

‎Prediction #1: OPEC will allow it’s member countries to exchange reserve petro-dollars for some other currency (this is the true reason we invaded Iraq). Fed will rocket interest rates and...
  • Prediction #1: OPEC will allow it’s member countries to exchange reserve petro-dollars for some other currency (this is the true reason we invaded Iraq). Fed will rocket interest rates and sell off its T-Bills [making us more indebted to foreign countries] to stem the flood of dollars into the economy. Banks will liquidate their cash holdings in response to higher rates, extending credit to business, thus flooding the market with more dollars. Gas prices will hit $7 a gallon by year end.
  • Prediction #2: Gold will continue to increase to about $1600 an ounce within the first quarter of 2011, most of that on speculation. There will then be a 30-40% correction, pulling gold down to around the $1000 mark. When this happens, gold hedgers will follow China and India on a buying spree pushing it up to $1,800 by year end.
  • Prediction #3: Some states will declare insolvency, probably California and New York. The politicians will pay lip service to taking austerity measures. They may even go so far as to invoke Art Laffer’s revenue maximization model, calling for tax cuts and the economic boost those cuts create. However, this will all be posturing since the states will follow the lead of the Federal government and Goldman Sachs [sorry Elizabeth] and look to the Federal Reserve for help. For the first time ever, the Fed will start purchasing distressed municipal bonds as a back door bailout of the states and major cities.
  • Prediction #4: Congress will co-opt the tea party movement.
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Bullish On Ireland

The Atlantic Review recently postulated that there may be little use in the economic classification of countries. Citing the fracturing of BRIC nations and the PIGS investment blocks, blogger Andrew...

The Atlantic Review recently postulated that there may be little use in the economic classification of countries. Citing the fracturing of BRIC nations and the PIGS investment blocks, blogger Andrew Zvirzdin asks, “How should we classify countries economically? Is there any value in grouping problem areas?” The confusion in the postulation lies not in the grouping of economically distressed countries, but in utilizing those groupings for analysis outside their original intent.

Economists, real money investors, and policy makers tend to think in macro and long-run scenarios, most investment bankers and hedge fund managers do not. The acronyms BRIC and PIGS were not invented for the sake of geographic long-run economic modeling, but for the sake of sovereign risk analysis. Traders, ever eager to capitalize on market fears and uncertainty, developed the acronyms to distinguish trading vs. investment strategies. By shorting weaker credits against strong, traders have been able to profit on a new sort of arbitrage in the government debt markets. These acronyms were never intended for long-run economic modeling but for short term leveraging of opportunities presented by an inability for a market to devalue their currency of choice through monetary easing.

But what of the long-run? As stated in the post, in addition to Ireland, “Portugal, Spain, and Greece are also all facing very different challenges.” I would add Italy to that list as well. An effective PR campaign doesn’t change the fact that Italy is facing real challenges that present debt traders with real temptation.

What of recovery? Which of these five models is best fit to rebound?

Greece
First, a Greek default probably isn’t going to happen. And this is where I take a principled stand against the implications of the Atlantic Review’s post. “The [PIGS] classification overlooks the more important–and legally binding—organizations already in existence, namely the EU and the Eurozone.” The EU made it clear that, although the TEU and the subsequent Lisbon Treaty do not expressly deny a country’s right of secession, Greece would not be allowed to default on it’s debt. So, state sovereignty has been sacrificed to the subsidiarity principle… Since only the Union can save Greece’s membership in the Union, Greece would not be allowed to leave the Union. The traditional Greek motto: Eleftheria i Thanatos, Freedom or Death, has become prophetic indeed. The sovereignty of Greece and her people is dead. The Greek collapse demonstrates that the subsidiarity principle detailed in Protocol 30 to the European Community Treaty was a lie intended to deny nations of their right to sovereign rule. Greece will be propped up, but at the cost of Germany’s superior productivity curve and lower unit labor costs. The reality though, is that by denying Greece the ability to default, and its fiscal policy to fail (thus shedding the non-productive parts of its economy), its own productivity will continue to sap the Union. And, as civil unrest mounts, the Union will have little stomach to cut wages necessary to bring Greece’s productivity in line with Germany’s. Greece will be saved, and talk of Union expansion will soon ensue using Greece as the poster-child. But stagnant productivity will retard real recovery. As long as the non-productive parts of the Greek economy exist, the nation will never rise to her potential.

Portugal
Portugal has its problems that will slow recovery. First, the top income tax is 42% coupled with a 26.5% corporate tax, a value added tax, and property taxes. The state sucks a whopping 37.8% of GDP into its public coffers. Most of that is used to finance legacy entitlements for its aging population and service interest on its national debt. Its government expenditures last year equated approximately 46% of GDP. That would be fine if its expenditures in the public-sector were efficient, but that is hardly the case. Couple that with the low public confidence in the private-sector, the state imposed high non-salary costs of labor, and inflexible labor regulations governing dismissal. The road to recovery will be long without private sector expansion.

Italy
Of the PIGS nations, Italy’s government expenditures are the greatest as a percentage of GDP. At more than 47% it is even worse than Iceland. Italy is burdened with the interest payments due on its national debt, which is the highest of the PIGS at 115% of GDP, relatively the same as the distressed US and lower than Japan’s. However, Italy’s savings rate is abysmal and a sizable portion of Italy’s debt is foreign controlled. 90% of the Japanese debt is owned domestically. Italy is facing a shrinking working population and an exploding entitlement burden promised to the nation’s aging. More than 20% of the population is over 65. Italy’s present is not totally bleak. Its norther regions have scaled back corruption in the investment sector significantly; however, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index investment and economic growth in Italy’s southern-tier is impeded significantly by corruption and organized crime. Economic expansion cannot occur without robust financing of and investment in the private sector. As Italy’s central government is forced to allocate resources on servicing of massive debt and entitlements, it can only hope that the non-municipal bond markets will deliver the investment necessary for small business to drive a rebound. That is precisely the type of arbitrage that hedge fund managers love to take advantage of, but it yields nothing but short term growth.

Spain
Spain’s problems are far from limited to the real estate bubble. With a 43% top income tax, 30% corporate tax, a VAT, property tax, and a sizable capital acquisition tax, foreign direct investment will not be what drives a recovery. Although, to its credit, the abolition of the wealth tax will not hurt its long term recovery. Spain’s public sector expenditures, including transfer payments is relatively high, but manageable at 38.8% of GDP. The recent Spanish Stimulus has yet to yield the promises of the Keynesian model on which it was constructed. Every fiscal expansion must be accompanied by an expansion in either savings or foreign direct investment. Spain’s saving rate is not expected to increase as a result of this stimulus. As such, it must be financed by foreign investment at a higher interest rate. This will in turn be contractionary because it will decrease consumers’ and investors’ confidence and raise, or reinforce, fiscal sustainability concerns. That is the perfect storm for a negative multiplier, the last thing a country seeking recovery needs to deal with.

Ireland
Ireland was left for last for a reason. Ireland has it’s problems. Its national debt is higher than Spain’s as a percentage of GDP at 63.7% and its government spending is roughly 63% of GDP. That combination has led to it’s grouping with the other PIIGS nations by IB arbitrage artists seeking to short sell government bonds. And as in Spain, Ireland’s banks were left highly exposed due to the rapid deflation of the property bubble. Ireland followed the American model of capital injection into the banking industry and nationalization of troubled assets. In doing so, they also consolidated governance of the financial sector into an integrated National Asset Management Agency. The nationalization of the banking industry cemented the already compromised competitiveness of these sectors.

The Irish, however, are all too knowledgeable about how to overcome cyclical economic downturns. After decades of playing the business cycle wrong, after centuries of leveraging the international influence of a colonial state with an emigrant population, Ireland learned what businesses need to thrive. It was that understanding that led to the greatest economic expansion the nation had ever experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s. The prowess of the Celtic Tiger was born on legs of high foreign direct investment, business freedom, and robust protection of property rights (including intellectual property). Today, Ireland is the most well positioned to receive FDI and foreign firms have equal legal protections as domestic firms. There are no regulatory barriers to foreign investment or capital inflows and repatriation of profits is 100% unrestricted. Starting a small business is a clear process, limited liability is preserved, and bankruptcy laws are completely transparent. Chattel rights are guaranteed, the legal system does not discriminate against foreign entities seeking enforcement of intellectual property rights. That courts are business friendly is an understatement. To top it off, Ireland boasts an amazing top corporate tax rate of 12.5%.

Perhaps Ireland’s greatest hindrance to a glorious recovery is the European Union’s trade policy itself. Upon the reluctant ratification of the Lisbon treaty, Ireland accepted increasing agricultural and manufacturing tariffs and forced agricultural and manufacturing subsidies. Regardless, in the case of Ireland, it will not be the Euro that saves the nation, it will not be the European Union, it will be the foreign corporation. The only threat posed in all of Europe to the Celtic Tiger’s resurrection is the flat tax revolution of the Baltic and Caucuses regions of Eastern Europe.

But recover she will. Of all the PIGS states, Ireland is the state most posed for long term economic expansion. She joins the list of other economically liberal nations recognized for long term growth, business cycle recovery, and economic sustainability: New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia (notice the lack of the US on that list). For those long-run scenario economists, investors, and politicians out there, I present to you the NISHA nations.

* most data from 2010 Index of Economic Freedom by the Heritage Foundation
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Goldberg, Jonah. “Liberal Fascism”

The following is a response to a book review by an old friend, Andrew Zvirzden, blogger at Atlantic Review. You can read his review here. I have a lot of...

The following is a response to a book review by an old friend, Andrew Zvirzden, blogger at Atlantic Review. You can read his review here. I have a lot of respect for Andrew, growing up he was always one of the most intelligent of our group of friends. I respect his honor and his integrity, he is a good man, but I believe that he as tacked ideologically and adopted a globalist paradigm. He has fallen into the seduction common to so many intellectuals: that the populace has a greater claim to rights than the individual and that there is no greater level of citizenship than to be a citizen of the world. The following is my response to his review:

Andrew, you always make one significant error in your evaluations of policy. You argue that the left/right divide is fluid and not static, thereby shifting the argument toward “what is center” and away from “what is correct.”

Jonah Goldberg’s book tries to use the left/right paradigm to explain the deviation from correct principles of individual rights, divisions of power, and limited government that the fascist regimes built by socialist movements sought to usurp. Perhaps framing the argument in a worn-out, hijacked paradigm was his greatest error. But he did so to reflect the difference between strict constructionist constitutional framing of government and historical fascist regimes (which intellectuals incessantly label as right of center – thus falsely correlating fascist methodology to conservative ideology) to his readers.

Among his greatest examples is the Nazi movement. A socialist movement that harnesses a countrys nationalism to deny individual rights, concentrate power, and expand the role of a government is no less to the left than the Bolshevik coup in Petrograd. Just because the communist party in Germany positioned itself to the left of the Nazis does not make the Nazi partys platform to the right of some preconceived static center. They both deviate from correct principles of good governance, as does the neo-Liberal (aka Progressive) movement… hence the title “Liberal Fascism”.

You would be wise do shed the old world paradigm of a left/right divide about a fluid center. As Aristotle would say, A=A. Rand, Existence exists. There is right and there is wrong. The principles espoused in the American Constitution represent the greatest firm point about which to build a government. There is no left of that point, there is no right of that point. There is only deviation from correct principles of government.

via Z Reviews: Liberal Fascism.

Again, I have much respect for Andrew. Check out his blog. He is becoming quite accomplished as he pursues a path through academia that will ultimately lead to influence in international and domestic policymaking circles. His Bio at Atlantic Review is as follows:

Originally from upstate New York, Andrew is currently pursuing a concurrent MA/MPA in International Economics and European Studies from Johns Hopkins University-SAIS and the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. He previously studied at the Free University of Brussels, University of Rome Tor Vergata, and Brigham Young University. He has also worked at the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, the US Mission to the European Union, and as Assistant Editor for Scandinavian Studies. Andrew specializes in political economy, international finance, and EU-US relations.

via Atlantic Review: About The Atlantic Review.

I do believe after reading his posts, however, that he is mistaken and misguided, that he has allowed the myth of democracy to poison the virtue of republican governance in the preservation of individual rights. I believe that he espouses a transnational doctrine that sacrifices state economic sovereignty on the altar of global stability.  I will certainly keep a respectful eye on Andrew’s career.